From Vessel Rerouting to Virus Resilience — And Why There Could Be A New Strain on Supply Chains

Clinton Spencer
Jun 11
4 min read

Updated: 10 hours ago

Clint sat with a radar behind him, looking out at virus microbes and shipping vessels

Hi, I’m Clint, founder of C-Sure Consulting. This week’s edition of C-Shorts explores how ongoing Red Sea vessel reroutes are impacting freight costs, and what the surge of new virus strains could mean for our working capital targets... But first, a quick personal note:

It’s been a wonky week at our house as we’ve been ill with a strange virus. First, it hit son number 2, then me, and son number 1, all around the same time. Strangely, it affected us all differently, even though the boys are only a few years apart. It got me thinking about how viruses constantly evolve, sometimes even person to person.

Thankfully, we’re all better now, but it was a powerful (and quite unpleasant) reminder that resilience isn’t just a business term.

🌊 Navigating the Waves: Vessel Rerouting and Its Global Impact Recent reports confirm that vessel rerouting in the Red Sea continues, with shipping lanes bypassing both the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most critical trade corridors. Historically a flashpoint and a vital economic artery, the Suez Canal now faces renewed geopolitical pressure from Houthi attacks and regional instability.

This has serious knock-on effects:

Longer routes = more fuel burn
Higher freight costs
Delays in port scheduling
Greater uncertainty in lead times

If you haven’t already, it’s worth revisiting your routing strategies.

Build in buffer lead times. Update your risk models. And if you’ve got historical data, compare it against past disruptions: what worked, what didn’t, and what contingency stock or alternate sourcing options made the difference.

✈️ Air freight remains a costly last resort, and sometimes it's the only viable lifeline. If this is your best overall option, then you must put your key customers in the loop. Turn it into a shared solution, not a solo panic move. Transparency beats damage control every time.

👉 In short: Bad news should travel fast. By informing stakeholders early, you give them the best chance to respond constructively, not critically.

🦠 Viral Variants and Vulnerability

New COVID-19 variants are back in the headlines. One in particular NB.1.8.1, nicknamed “Nimbus” has been spreading across the UK, China, Europe, and Australia. It’s not considered more lethal, but its odd mix of symptoms (nausea, vomiting, GI distress) and rapid spread have triggered fresh guidance. In some places, we’re even seeing calls for 48-hour isolation post-symptoms.

Meanwhile, scientists in China have flagged HKU5-CoV-2, a bat coronavirus that could potentially jump to humans with only a small mutation, echoing the origin stories of SARS and MERS.

Add to that:

Escalating tensions in Israel and Lebanon
Severe flooding in Germany and China
Ongoing climate volatility

And what we have is a deeply complex risk landscape.

🔁 Looking Back to Move Forward

I still remember the intense challenges of managing a global supply chain during the early days of the pandemic. When lockdowns came in, entire transit routes became wildly unpredictable, and with very few backup options available. Increasing safety stock for long-lead items could make the difference between running the factory and a complete stoppage. Yet, this also meant making the hard choice between more expensive local suppliers or reworking entire sourcing strategies, with each decision impacting the bottom line.

But resilience in that environment wasn’t just about safety stock. It was about relationships, visibility, and staying mentally agile enough to make tough calls quickly.

Today, we’ve got better data tools, more experience, and broader awareness of the ripple effects. But those tools are only as good as the leadership and systems behind them. 🤔 So, How Can We Strengthen Resilience?

Here are some practical steps:

Diversify Your Supply Base Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Regional sourcing might cost more, but it could be the thing that saves you when global routes fail.
Enhance Visibility and Communication Use real-time data to track inventory, shipment progress, and supplier health. Combine it with honest communication to stay ahead of surprises.
Review and Stress-Test Contingency Plans: Simulations and tabletop drills help highlight weaknesses before they become real problems.
Invest in Collaborative Relationships: Engage with your whole supply chain ecosystem: partners, logistics providers, even competitors if needed. The future is collaborative.
Plan Inventory Strategically: Use predictive analytics to find the balance between lean efficiency and buffer stock. This reduces both overreaction and blind spots when disruptions hit.

The world isn’t getting any simpler, but your approach doesn't have to be complicated...

At C-Sure Consulting, we help businesses prepare for the unpredictable by drawing from real-world experience, robust data, and practical action. Whether the challenge is a virus, a vessel delay, or something totally unexpected, resilience starts with a clear plan and the right people in your corner.